tck tck tck tck tck tck tck tck.....

Global wake up call on climate change. So little time and so much to lose if the countries at the climate talks in Copenhagen this December miss the opportunity to take decisive action. The ticking clock (we are at 'one minute to midnight') is waking up people around the world and especially leaders who will be making decisions on a post-Kyoto framework.

Today there are at least 2,400 events taking place on 5 continents to raise awareness. They range from the diminutive nun with a yellow tambourine at Cambridge's marketplace "flash mob" (unable to get through to Gordon Brown on the phone) to the masked man on an Australian beach giving Kevin Rudd a wake-up call. Tick tock, tick tock, tick tock...
(Check twitter @tcktcktck for updates).

Global Allotments

Between the White Nile on the left of this image and the smaller Blue Nile on the right, irrigated agriculture spreads across the Sudanese Sahara.
Today it may be for cotton fibre, tomorrow it will likely be biofuels, the day after tomorrow it will be for food.

But not necessarily for Sudan, or even for Africa, despite the impoverishment of people and patchiness of food supply across the continent. Huge areas of agricultural land are being "secured" in advance for wealthier nations or those betting on future value as food insecurity starts to bite. Hard to swallow?

Various reports are documenting this land grab and the International Food Policy Research Institute estimates between US$20 billion and US$30 billion are being spent yearly by rich countries on agricultural land in developing countries. John Vidal in yesterday's Guardian quotes Devinder Sharma, analyst with the Forum for Biotechnology and Food Security in India, predicting civil unrest:

"Outsourcing food production will ensure food security for investing countries but would leave behind a trail of hunger, starvation and food scarcities for local populations," he said. "The environmental tab of highly intensive farming – devastated soils, dry aquifer, and ruined ecology from chemical infestation – will be left for the host country to pick up."

Carbon Cha-cha-cha?

The Cha-cha-chá and a host of sensuous latin fusion dances diffused out from Latin America and created an enthusiastic following around the world. Please, Latin America, consider carbon-carbon-carbon at the regional World Economic Forum in Rio de Janeiro next week (14-16 April) and set the rest of the World dancing to your tune. The summit will address "Implications of the Global Economic Crisis for Latin America" as well as "other serious challenges, such as climate change". In the region that hosts the Amazon, this add on for climate and carbon issues is nothing like enough and leadership is needed, from the World Forum, from Brazilian president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva who will open the meeting and from the other heads of state also part of the summit.

The forum has set up a climate task force, with business and "thought leaders". Worthwhile, but again, not enough, and possibly a distraction. It is focused on alternatives and adaptation - the 20%+ of the problem that could be solved by stopping deforestation and degradation is almost a throwaway line in the letter this group sent to the G20 leaders this week. Meanwhile, many of the companies listed are still looking to biofuels for renewable energy and ignoring the impacts on land use and natural habitats - thereby ignoring ecosystem services of water and biodiversity in addition to the carbon calculations.

Is "low carbon propserity" feasible? Certainly prosperity is a motivator, but so is survival and that has to take precedence. If the Amazon dies it is Giselle's "dance of death" that will be percolating out from the Americas to the rest of the world rather than the life-enhancing Cha-cha-chá.

(H)air force one

Just 12 generations ago, Barack Obama's ancestor Thomas Blossom was born in the little Cambridgeshire village of Shelford, 20 minutes by car (3 by helicopter) from where Air Force One touched down in Stansted a few hours ago. The local Hair Salon called Hair Force One has been handed a marketing bonanza.

When young Thomas was a mere toddler, the Blossom family moved to the nearby village of Stapleford, thereby sparking a neighbourly feud 429 years later as each village jostles to claim this famous heritage of their Puritan resident.

Now Barack, Mr. President sir, sprinkle a little fairy dust over those G20 leaders please. Change has come back to old England.

Death by palm oil

Elephants from the "Conservation Response Units" are called upon by farmers in the Indonesian island of Sumatra, when their crops are being raided by wild elephants from nearby forest. The captive ones patrol the forest edge and warn the raiders away. Sounds apocryphal but I've seen it working - and the balance between conserved forests and local agriculture is maintained.

Enter the commercial oil palm companies - even one that should know better, a subsidiary of the UK-registered company Anglo Eastern Plantations that is a member of the Round Table on Sustainable Palm Oil. Not only is the company clearing protected lowland rainforest illegally in an area that has not been zoned for conversion to agriculture, but it has built a road through an elephant sanctuary. This opens up general access and last Tuesday two of the elephants were shot.

Something to ponder as you eat your ice-cream, spreads and other goodies loaded with palm oil - also recently shown to be suspect in terms of saturated fats. There are some sustainable plantations and some efforts by the food industry to comply. Good, balanced, recent info is supplied by Mongabay and the Rainforest Action Network. But basically the uncontrolled expansion of plantations across the globe is destroying biodiverse forests and peatlands, ecosystem services, orang utans, elephants and more. Leaves a rather bad taste in your mouth, don't you think?

Out of breath

Our breathing earth.... thought provoking simulation of CO2 emissions, births and deaths by country.

Living planet?

The latest Living Planet Report produced every couple of years by WWF, the Zoological Society of London and the Global Footprint Network, measures the health of the planet's ecosystems and the extent of human demand on them.

In summary this 2008 "human demands on the world's natural capital measure nearly a third more than earth can sustain."

We have an increasingly start choice - do we just let competition sort it out (and would the "fittest" survive?) or do we collaborate to sort it out together, as we naked apes are supposed to be able to do? Whatever kind of society we want we don't have much time to ponder. Andy Dufrein's "get busy living or get busy dying" (Shawshank Redemption) has some resonance for humanity.

Are you feeling lucky?

"Are you feeling lucky?" Clint Eastwood's character asks in the film 'Dirty Harry'. Here on an increasingly dirty earth another IUCN world gathering is about to descend on Barcelona, and "Transition to Sustainability: towards a Humane and Diverse World" has been put together to this deadline.

It will need more than luck. Adams and Jeanreneaud argue that the two essentials (of a low carbon economy and a world that values nature) require a third companion to have any chance of planetary sustainability - social equity. What was that at the back? "Fat chance" did you say? Well think again... in this philosophical narrative of conservation we are reminded of the self-fulfilling politics of fear. "I had a nightmare..." might not have had quite the resonance, or stimulated quite the change, that Martin Luther King's dream managed to do. All very well and yes, we need inspiration as much as information - but both science and history indicate that we'll change the world only when the selfish genes kick in. Too late? Another soundbite pulled from the ether by these authors.. "there are no sewers on a spaceship".

If you are expending carbon to help save the world at the IUCN congress, you can offset intellecually by engaging in the "sustainability dialogues" around these issues.

And by the way is it, or is it not, the "World Conservation Union" - compare the mixed branding still on the IUCN website against comment on this post.

Going for Gold in Ghana?

Quietly, under the media shadows created by activities in Beijing and Georgia, a meeting of fundamental importance for the planet is taking place in Ghana. One of a series leading to "post Kyoto" agreements on Climate Change next year, it needs to go for Gold and not settle for just taking part - not something the UN has a great track record in. Blue sky thinking and innovative action rather than flying the flags of narrow national vested interests.

Personally, if we had to rely only on the U.N. in this arena, I'd give up now. Fortunately we have civil society knowledge and ingenuity as well as corporate economic drive to turn to as well. If they work together, rather than in opposition, they could provide some winning solutions.

Rights and righteousness

Liberal hacks are having a field day over corporate investment in Zimbabwe and British politicians are rushing to divest themselves of any dubious shareholdings. Superficially the criticism has resonance with the righteous, as outside investment can prop up a regime such as that of newly non-elected President Mugabe.

What are the alternatives however? The corporations who are there already, particularly those mining giants who have worked hard on their corporate social responsibility record, argue that they have made a commitment to their workforce and that pulling the plug would hurt that workforce more than the Mugabe regime. So, arguably a sacrifice for local stakeholders exceeding that of global shareholders. Who makes this call - the people themselves, the regime or the opposition who should by rights be in power?

And what of new investment - is this clearer cut? Companies are all having to conform to new rules imposing a 51% requirement for indigenous share ownership and there is fear that the current regime will profit from the new investment that has caused a particular outcry against Anglo American. Of course it will. It holds the strings of power and can sell off resources to the highest bidder; it is not constrained by the transparency of democracy nor the brake imposed by a freely operating media. I feel real angst about this one... as I know all that but would still prefer to see those companies that pay more than lip service to CSR (in fact those for whom it is CESR or Corporate Environmental and Social Responsibility) out-compete the insidious aquisition of Africa by Chinese companies unconstrained (as yet) by an electorally-derived social ethos or concern.

Personal Carbon

Personal carbon trading - shelved on May 8th, brought back off the shelf before it could even gather dust on May 27th. Is this rapid return to prominence because it is a really good idea, despite its dishing by Defra, or to distract from political difficulty at the top? Cynacism aside, what do we think of it? Arjay is in two minds...

The negative one says it will be absolutely unworkable, absorb a host of effort on bureaucracy that could be more usuefully applied to beneficial activity, focus too heavily on quotas and distract attention from reducing use overall. Those who have experienced Government running a rationing scheme of any kind (my parents in wartime for example) knows it will lead to abuse and illegality too.

But the positve one wonders whether it will be worthwhile whatever the problems as a tool for generating awareness of the issues and behavioural change at the individual level. Spreading around the world, might it turn this row of motorbikes snapped recently in Indonesia back to a row of bicyles before they become a row of cars?

Cultural clashes, cool waters

Isn't it striking how the Free Tibet protests surrounding the Olympic torch as it sears a path to Beijing reflect the cultures in which they are occuring, not the cultural origin of the issue?

Who did not chuckle at the sight of bumbling bobbies on bicycles trying to cope with surging crowds as the olympic flame singed a path through London? (Well, maybe not the serious, cloned, chinese security cordon). Lets not dwell on the leather-jacketed heavies scrambling for structure as the torch scorched its way through Paris. Lets consider instead, how elegantly Californians have used both aesthetic and athletic abilities to produce a visually stunning protest strung up on the golden gate bridge. Ahhh .... cool water soothing a troubled image bank.

Reflect for a moment though on the strength of tribal territories. How much of the controversy in the world comes down to cultural conflict? And how much does culture cling to a certain area of land and decisions about how to manage it? Trade and economic development have driven an international agenda (and technological expansion), but how fragile is this? As constraints on food supply and other resources starts to bite, what units of operation and cohesion will we default to..... and how rapidly? A prediction - our Future Earth will be composed of "tribal" territories and inter-tribal conflict will increase. Discuss.

Plastic in Paradise

Yet another load of non-degradable plastic makes its precarious way into the beautiful, diverse and disappearing forests of Indonesian Borneo.

At the end of this particular road, Arjay saw people finding the plastic paraphernalia very useful for their daily subsistence. Traffic in the other direction was of tapped, raw rubber and sweaty, rotting oil palm fruits ... both of which are converted into indispensable (?) trappings of life in more populous cities across land and sea.

But this is not entirely bad news. Both rubber and oil palm plantations in this area are small-scale local community lots used as cash crops in the local economies and the distant forest you see there is currently protected from the big commercial outfits. Why might this remain? Just look - along the many miles of this road runs a bright blue pipe, taking fresh mountain water to the people of the regional capital. How about that for a demonstrable ecosystem service?

Swiftlet soup for supper?

Rather an avian flavour to this blog recently so here’s one more post that takes that literally. Birds nest soup has been a menu option in China for over a thousand years, although it went out of f(l)avour politically for a while. Now the demand from the Chinese diaspora is huge, and over-exploitation of the traditional supply from caves across south-east Asia edged the nest building swiftlets onto the CITES menu a few years ago.

One of many memorable Attenborough moments – the sainted Sir Dave, feet traditionally planted in bat and bird guano, peering into the upper reaches of Malaysian caves as the local nest collectors risked life and limb to secure “white gold”, the set saliva of the male swiflets that is meant to protect the eggs and nestlings. The birds can produce three nests per breeding season so collecting only the first two can allow one brood to survive and sustain the supply.

Sadly though, the trade has become just too profitable. Where there’s muck (can’t get that image of the cave floor out of my mind!) there’s money … but where there’s money there’s muck too. Over-exploitation, trade rackets – demand exceeding supply leads to a $60 price tag on a single bowl of soup in Hong Kong. Its big business and people will kill to protect it.

Enter the entrepreneur. Colonies of twittering swiftlets that have set up in town houses are now managed for productivity; even though some of the techniques are mean (“Midnight Music” post – 20^th February), they are cosseted as valuable residents. Have a look at these photos though – new build along the coast of Borneo is all for the birds – the giveaway is the large flat sides with evenly spaced ventilation holes. Bordellos for working birds. Swiftlet Hiltons – except its build your own bed, at least twice. Populations are increasing though, so just who is exploiting who?

P.S. And why? Chinese scientists have recently determined that the active ingredient (thought to have a range of medicinal properties) is destroyed as the nests are prepared for consumption. Ah well.

P.P.S. There is a nasty sting in this tale however. The birds eat insects from their surroundings, and not surprisingly the most sought-after nests are ones where the foraging is from natural environments. Another ecosystem service at risk?

Aceh Green

Aceh’s Governor Irwandi enjoys political credibility with his electorate (38% of the post-conflict vote) and environmental credibility as a “Green Governor”, championing a healthy environment as a basis for long-term economic development. So far, so good. What’s the problem?

Sadly, the problem lies within the peace process. Prolonged conflict constrained destruction of natural resources; peace unleashed the demon of uncontrolled exploitation. The Governor instituted a logging moratorium along with a comprehensive review of the forest sector. The stakes are high, and not only for a healthy environment. The carbon wrapped up within Aceh’s forests “ups the ante” and could provide an economic incentive for their protection. Aceh’s Ulu Masen forest complex has just received the first certification as a site where the world could invest in avoiding destruction through carbon credits:

http://ecosystemmarketplace.com/index.php

Roll up, roll up – place your bets on the future of the planet.

And Pigs might Fluoresce...

Those “glow in the dark” plastic toys falling out of cereal packets are sooooo last year. Look forward instead to livening the murky winter mornings with glowing green bacon on your breakfast plate.

It would appear that scientists in Taiwan have succeeded in combining genetic material from jellyfish and pigs and produced 3 piglets that fluoresce from the inside - http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/4605202.stm

Worrying or amusing? Not lighting up my alarm buttons. I’m not yet trotting off to complain about this genetic manipulation. Increasing demand for pigs in China with the burgeoning economy is a greater threat, as it puts more pressure on land around the world to produce cereal crops to grow the pigs in the first place. And that primary productivity is our limiting factor. Might become a delicacy though as those who can afford the luxury compete for novelty (all pigs being equal but some being more equal than others).

Chinese Walls...

.....“ barriers to information flow” – implemented by business people to protect insider insights, or between friends to protect against gossips. (Yes – experience shows that they are usually as thin as a paper tiger, rather than reflecting the substantial aspiration of the Great Wall of China).

For the good of the globe, please break them down on anything to do with the environment. Check out the reasoned and knowledgeable responses from John MacKinnon on this NYT blog:

http://china.blogs.nytimes.com/2007/12/06/answers-from-john-mackinnon/

Environmental insights that range in scope from….China v. Rest-of-the-World in the trade arena, to whether two turtles can save a species. Little and large – all fascinating and pertinent. Too late for the Baiji freshwater dolphin perhaps, but the different shades of green around energy solutions paint a palette as complex as a tropical rainforest.

“It’s not easy being green”

Kermit was right – and “being green” is becoming increasingly complex in this globalised world.

In 2003 EU Politicians thought they were brushing up their green credentials nicely by creating the EU Directive on Biofuels. This set a target that all fuel in the EU would be 5.75% from biofuel sources by 2010. Great – less burning of limited fossil fuels, more of stuff we could grow ourselves.

What happened? Massive conversion of land to biofuel production of course (couldn’t they see this coming?)... Increasing the rate of deforestation in places like Indonesia and Malaysia, leading to phenomenal amounts of CO2 being emitted into the atmosphere.

Consider this.....a four-million hectare peatland forest in a province in northern Sumatra stores 14.6 gigatons of carbon dioxide. Indonesia is now the third-largest emitter of carbon dioxide, after the USA and China.

We’ll come back to biofuels on this blog, but I’ll leave you with the words of a UN report just released in the run-up to the UN Conference on Climate Change in Bali next week.

“Deforestation to make way for large-scale mono-cropping of energy crops obliterates the ‘green credentials’ of the biofuel.’’

Back to the drawing board – sharpening up the green pencil.....!

Chinese Whispers

The question is not whether the future is Chinese, but how much the rest of the world wants to engage with China in shaping it – and how (on earth) they can go about it?

With an economist’s hat on, it is impossible not to admire how the nation is taking over the planet. What thoughtful advanced planning to tie up the United States in a financial stranglehold, and what clever opportunism to make offers that could not be refused to cash-strapped African economies in exchange for absolute rights over increasingly scarce and essential mineral resources. Oh yes, and let’s become the aid agency of choice to our increasingly powerful colleagues in the Americas.

With an environmental hat on, however bright green and jauntily tilted, that grudging admiration turns to abject horror. Recognising the complete decimation of natural resources nationally, the country has turned to its own back yard and beyond. Yes there are uncomfortable parallels with other historical colonists but can we risk a repetition of past mistakes at devastating scope and scale for the planet? Meanwhile, almost under the radar, forest resources from Asia Pacific are draining into China and all living things, plant and animal, across Kazakhstan are being hoovered up progressively by their neighbour. And while increased wheat and soya prices globally are attributed to a changing climate, we are almost not noticing the impact of these feedstuffs being converted into meat for a burgeoning and aspirational Chinese middle class. Of course the price will rise, and it will continue to rise until the market kicks back.

And what price for biological diversity? With China in control of the planet, the answer is “not much”. Where the culture dictates, as in some rangeland communities, biodiversity is part of sustainability. But otherwise “if it moves eat it or laugh at it” and “we don’t need nature, just technology” seem to predominate. A glimmer of hope lies in Chinese pragmatism. Firstly, if we can demonstrate the value of biological diversity in providing ecosystem services (which we can – check out http://www.millenniumassessment.org) it will become valued economically (just in time or too late?). Secondly, we can hold China to account on the international stage over natural resource conventions and the like (surprisingly perhaps this international recognition is still craved). Perhaps most importantly we can use every opportunity to support young environmental champions and glimmers of an environmental movement within China. It’s their future too – and we do have access to (most of ) the internet..... Whisper, whisper, pass it on...